Saturday, October 16, 2010

Update: The Next War Is On Hold

Iranian President Ahmadineajad
Intelligence provided to SHTF America, details changes to the Iranian perspective on their chances of avoiding annihilation, or at least widespread destruction; and even worse to their mind, an eventual "regime change" that would eliminate altogether, their tenuous grip on power. Thus "self preservation" has become the new normal for the Powers That Be in Iran.

Our intelligence sources indicate that decisions at the highest level, that's a level above Ahmadinejad, in the Council of the Ayatollahs, have concluded that they have pushed the West as far as they can at this time and are now prepared to make nuclear concessions in exchange for considerable financial and commercial incentives. Thus, they have concluded that the best course of action is to "play along" embrace the NWO, and live to fight another day.

Analysis by that nation's military options team (MOT) has concluded that war at this time with Israel and the West is not a viable option. Apparently, four bushes in hand is more appealing than 15 vestal virgins in Paradise.

At any rate, expect an announcement in the coming weeks with Iran signing new protocols with the UN on nuclear inspection, processing and enrichment; for which they will receive considerable applause and public acclaim on the one hand, and generous commercial and financial inducements on the other. Bribery has always worked for the New World Order, why not now?

For their part, the Iranians are still perfecting their nuclear technology and need more time to get their ducks in a row and their warheads aligned. This coming agreement with the UN will buy them that time and generate public support from the other nations of the world while isolating Israel politically, in the event of a First Strike.  Tehran hasn't lost sight of its goal, and has not changed its intent to acquire nuclear weapons; but has decided to ditch a losing strategy and change tactics, for now.

Blessed with extensive hydrocarbon resources, Iran is a wealthy, but under developed nation; unable even to refine enough gasoline for its own consumption. Iran has now chosen to follow the example of China: embrace the West, develop its industrial capability, and prepare for eventual confrontation.

When we say, "embrace the West" we are not suggesting that Iran will allow Disneyland to build a new theme park outside of Tehran. We mean that Iran will embrace Western capital to develop its resources, much like Russia has, and then use legal means to confiscate that wealth. It may eventually coin a new phrase: "Iranian giver!"

In the meantime, Iran will continue to support terrorists against the West and encourage its proxies to engage Israel militarily. Tehran has decided to grow rich and powerful to extend its reach, over time, to other areas of the Middle East and Central Asia prior to engaging Israel and the Western Powers.  Under this strategy, it is easy to imagine a future Iran dominating the considerable wealth of Afghanistan and large, lucrative parts of Irag after the US disengages. A potential religious, political, and military union with these territories is also possible. In ten or twenty years under this strategy, Iran could be a formidable threat to any nation.

The man that masters patience, masters all things. The nation that masters patience consolidates its power and lives to fight another day.